The latest outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

 

What the Forecasts Say

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes.
  
  

• Colorado State University (CSU) projects 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, reinforcing the trend toward a more-active season.
  
  

• Weather.com and The Weather Company forecast up to 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a higher-than-average risk of U.S. landfalls (around three).
  
  

• Other agencies (e.g., Guy Carpenter, AccuWeather) also expect an above-average number of storms, driven by warm ocean temperatures and neutral ENSO conditions (no El Niño or La Niña).
  
  

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Current Season Status

• Slow start: The season began on June 1, but the first named storm (Andrea) didn’t form until June 24—the latest onset since 2014.
  
  

• Named storms so far:

  • Andrea

  • Barry

  • Chantal: Made landfall in South Carolina in early July, causing flooding and fatalities.

  • Dexter: Developed in North Carolina but is moving away from land.
    
    

• Early August activity:

  • NOAA maintained forecasts for an above-normal season.

  • A tropical wave off the African coast (Invest 97-L) has a 90% chance of developing into the next named storm, likely “Erin.”
    
    

• Environmental concerns:

• The Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic waters are warmer than average, which may fuel stronger storms.

• Marine heat waves are being monitored closely.

With the peak hurricane season (August–September) approaching, forecasters are cautious—highlighting a warming sea surface and tropical wave activity that could escalate storm formation.