Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, has recently garnered attention due to an increased probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. NASA's analysis now estimates a 2.3% chance of collision, up from the previous 1% assessment.
This asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide. While the current risk remains low, the 2.3% probability is considered significant, placing it at a level three on the Torino scale—a measure of the potential threat posed by near-Earth objects.
In response to this increased risk, NASA and other space agencies are intensifying monitoring efforts. The James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe 2024 YR4 in March and May 2025 to obtain more precise data on its size and orbit.
Potential impact zones have been identified, including regions across South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador fall within this risk corridor.
While the likelihood of a collision remains low, scientists are exploring mitigation strategies. Options under consideration include kinetic impactors, nuclear devices, and other planetary defense techniques. However, the short timeframe—less than eight years until the potential impact—poses challenges for implementing such measures.
It's important to note that asteroid impact probabilities can change as more observations are made. Ongoing research and monitoring are essential to refine these estimates and develop appropriate response strategies.